Blog Category Archives: Economics

Status of Australian AORD-X Index until October 4, 2017

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Status of Chinese SSE Index until October 4, 2017

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Status of Japanese NIKKEI-225 Index until October 4, 2017

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Status of UK FTSE-100 Index until October 4, 2017

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Status of German DAX Index until October 4, 2017

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Status of USD/YEN until October 8, 2017

The other major Forex index is the US Dollar against Japanese Yen (USD/JPY). Comments related to EUR/USD also apply to USD/JPY. Figure 17.26 shows a monthly chart of USD/JPY from 1975 to December 28, 2015.

17-26Figure 17.26 Charts courtesy of netdania.com

We can see that the USD has been substantially depreciating against JPY from 1975 to 1995. This trend was mainly the consequence of removing the USD gold backing by the Fed. After that, USD/JPY was practically trending sideway until Q4, 2012. Mr. Abe became the prime minister of Japan in 2012. He is trying with full power to depreciate JPY against the dollar (to make the dollar go higher) with unprecedented QE plans. The up trending wave from October 2012 to December 28, 2015, is partly the result of the BoJ QE program, and partly because of the rate hike anticipation by the Fed.

Inflation or Deflation: What is good for the economy and citizens?

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Status of EUR/USD until October 8, 2017

Forex is the exchange for trading currencies. The EUR/USD index shows the evolution of the Euro against the US Dollar. When the EUR/USD goes up, the Euro appreciates against the USD, and when it goes down, the USD appreciates against the Euro. When you open a Long position on EUR/USD, you bet that the Euro will appreciate. With a Short position, you bet that the Euro depreciates and the USD appreciates.

Figure 17.25 shows a monthly chart of EUR/USD from 1991 to December 28, 2015. On its left side, the Euro relentlessly depreciates against the USD until Q3 2000. Then after a double bottom of W-type in 2000 and 2001, the Euro started a rally until 2008 to reach an exchange rate of $1.60 for 1 Euro. Since then, the EUR/USD wave evolves within a down trending channel. In December 2015, the wave was sitting on a support line. Should the Fed announce another rate hike in 2016 or after, the wave could break through the support line. This event is however quite unlikely because such decision would have adverse effects on the trend of the US financial markets and the ability of the US governments to service their debt.

The EUR/USD trend prediction and timing will be included in the MPS TradeAlerts newsletter.

For further details regarding the state of the US Economy and Finances, please refer to the section “The Fed”.

Status of Crude Oil until October 4, 2017

The Light Sweet Crude Oil Index called XOILX in TC2000 tracks the price of oil. Figure 17.22 shows a monthly chart of XOILX for the period from 2003 to December 28, 2015.

In the early phase of the chart, the price of oil was in the range of $25. After that, the XOILX rallied to some $80 in Q3 2006. After bottoming in Q1 2007, oil rallied to an all-time high of 146.65 on July 11, 2008. The correction since then has taken the form of a zigzag A, B, and C. Like CRY0, subwave A ended in Q1 2009 and subwave B, either in Q2 2011 or Q2 2014. The subwave C then begun and is going to develop a five-wave motive pattern, downward. Detailed Money printing Strategy analyzes of CRY0 also apply here.

On top of the deflationary pressure that pushes the price of oil down, the technology innovations are always helping to discover new types of energy at economical and affordable production prices. The environmental and climate change is another factor that will force the price of oil to fall. Ultimately, the technological innovations will enable the replacement of fossil energy by the renewable and clean energy of sun, wind, and sea.

Utilization of oil will progressively decrease, and therefore, its price should go further down, maybe to the area of $12. Around the year 2050, oil may mainly be used by the developing countries who cannot afford the capital investments for the production of renewable energies. The developed countries will progressively consider oil as an obsolete source of energy, to end with the same fate as for coal.

Status of Commodity Index until October 4, 2017

The commodities are tracked through the Commodity Research Index, called CRY0 in TC2000. Here we analyze the status of CRY0, Gold, and Crude Oil. Figure 17.20 shows a monthly chart of CRY0 from mid-1991 to December 28, 2015.

CRY0 tracks quite well the market phases of inflation and deflation. When it trends upward, it signals phases of inflation and when downward, deflation. Likewise, when it goes up, it signals a prevailing economic demand side and when down, a weak demand and a strong supply side. Deflation is the consequence of vanishing wealth due to recession or depression in the economy and finances.

At the beginning of the chart, CRY0 was rather in a correction mode until a double bottom W-type trend reversal in Q4 2001. Then it rallied until Q2 2008. The commodities crashed and lost more than 50% of its value from Q3 2008 to Q1 2009, in a short period of some nine months. This loss was caused by the crash of financial markets during subwave C of DJ-30. Owing to the US QE plans, the commodity prices were re-inflated from Q1 2009 to Q2 2011 after injection of a massive amount of money in the financial markets by the Fed. Since Q2 2011, the CRY0 develops within a steep down trending channel. The wave has meanwhile broken the horizontal support lines at 201, but also the bottom price of the W-type trend reversal at 184.

The CRY0 pattern conveys a scary signal. In principle, when the stock markets are close to all-time highs, the CRY0 is also expected to be close to all-time high. However, this is not the case in Q4 2015.

From the Money Printing Strategy wave analysis viewpoint, CRY0 seems to develop a zigzag pattern. The subwave A started from the all-time high of 2008 to end in Q1 of 2009. Then the subwave B brought the CRY0 upward until Q2 2011. The subwave C then started. It is going to subdivide into five motive sub-subwaves. Sub-subwave 1 ended in Q2 2012 and sub-subwave 2, in Q2 2014. The sub-subwave 3 began in Q2 2014. Most likely, it is going to be extended. Therefore, the sub-sub-subwave 1 of sub-subwave 3 ended in Q2 2015, and the sub-sub-subwave 2 in Q3 2015. Therefore, the final leg down is the sub-sub-sub-subwave 1 of sub-sub-wave 1 of sub-sub-wave 3. Consequently, the CRY0 has still a long period of correction ahead before the sub-subwave 5 of the subwave C is completed.

Why CRY0 conveys a scary signal? The reason is that when the DJ-30 starts its plunge until 2019, a colossal amount of wealth, invested in financial markets, vanishes and the bubbles pop up. The loss of wealth compresses the demand side of the economic balance. This results in an increase in the buying power of money. Consequently, the price of goods and services falls. This will be the effect of the screaming deflationary signal of CRY0.

A plunge in the price of commodities will hurt mostly the developing countries whose economies are heavily dependent on the export of their raw natural resources.

For further details concerning the deflation, please refer to Chapter 13.

The CRY0 trend prediction and timing will be included in the MPS TradeAlerts newsletter.

For further details regarding the state of the US Economy and Finances, please refer to the section “The Fed”.

Status of S&P-500 Index until October 4, 2017

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Status of French CAC-40 Index

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Status of Canadian TSX index until September 22, 2017

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Status of the US Dollar Index until September 23, 2017

The US Dollar Index measure the value of the dollar against a basket of other currencies. In TC2000, the index is called DXY0. When the DXY0 goes up, the Dollar goes up and other currencies tend to go down, and vice versa.

Figure 17.24 shows a monthly chart of DXY0 from mid-1991 to December 28, 2015. We can see that after a decline from 1994 to mid-1995, DXY0 rallied until Q3, 2001. However and after a M-type double tops trend reversal in Q1 2002, it started to trend down until Q1 2008. After that, it trended sideway until Q3 2014. The final rally is the consequence of anticipation of a rate hike by the Fed.

DXY0 trends generally in the opposite direction of commodities. When DXY0 goes up, the commodities tend to go down and vice versa. The fluctuation of the Dollar index has a significant impact on the US economy and labor market. A high value of the index means that the price of imported goods and services falls. This situation impacts the US trade balance drastically because not only the price of imported products and services declines but at the same time the price of products and services for export becomes more expensive for other countries. Consequently, a higher value of the dollar index may lead to delocalization of companies and industries. In the long run, this may adversely affect the unemployment rate. The lower value of DXY0 provokes the opposite effects.

Since many years now, a hot currency war is in progress among various countries. This war is done with the ammunitions of low-interest rates, low banking capital requirements, and QE programs. This war feeds a vicious circle and forces other countries to devalue their currency in turn and indefinitely, until the trust in fiat currencies vanishes and the bank notes become worth the intrinsic value of the printed-paper.

Therefore, it is clear that an appreciation of dollar leads to delocalization of companies. The US economy being sluggish, a high value of DXY0 adversely affects the growth rate of the US GDP. Consequently, a hike in interest rate should be undesirable for the US economy that may provoke the crash of the stock and bond markets. Does the Fed know the effect and consequences of a rate hike? Yes for sure, but it may get forced to, because of the prevailing forces of the free market. Otherwise, by refusing to hike the rates, they convey a signal that the economy is sluggish, which in turn may adversely affect the financial markets.

By the way, the ECB and BoJ are fighting with full power to depreciate their currencies against the US dollar and other currencies, precisely to propel their exporting sector. Can the US economy withstand the pressure of an overvalued currency in the long run? To be seen.

The DXY0 trend prediction and timing will be included in the MPS TradeAlerts newsletter.

For further details regarding the state of the US Economy and Finances, please refer to the section “The Fed”.

Status of the US Real Estate Index until September 23, 2017

To analyze the state of the US real estate, we use the TC2000 MG440 Real estate index. Figure 17.23 shows a monthly chart of the US housing index from 1988 to December 28, 2015. After a correction in 1990, the real estate started a prolonged rally until Q1 2007 to make an all-time high on February 8, 2007, with a price of 821.87. With the financial market deflation and depression of 2008, the Real Estate bottomed with a price of 148.28 on March 6, 2009. This represents a loss of 82% from the top. As a reminder, DJ-30 also bottomed on March 6, 2009. Since then, the real estate was re-inflated through the Fed successive QE programs. On December 28, 2015, the wave is sitting on the resistance trend line of the down trending channel. This level is also the Fibonacci retracement level with a loss of 38.2% from the all-time high. The correction from 2007 has taken the zigzag pattern. The subwave A ended in Q1, 2009 and the subwave B, most likely on 28 January 2015. Like CRY0 and oil, the subwave C will take the pattern of a five-wave motive, trending downward. For 2015, the chart shows a small degree down trending wave 1 and 2. The down trending resistance line being confirmed by two different means, the wave may rather have difficulty to break through it, upward.

The real estate prices should find bottom when the wave touches the down trending support line. Most likely, it would find support in the price area of Q4, 1990.

The Real Estate index trend prediction and timing will be included in the MPS TradeAlerts newsletter.

For further details regarding the state of the US Economy and Finances, please refer to the section “The Fed”.

Status of Gold

Gold and silver are two of the commodities that have long been used as real money throughout the history. The history of gold is explained in detail in Chapter 13. Here we would like to check the chart of gold called XGLD in TC2000.

Figure 17.21 shows a monthly chart of gold from 1993 to December 28, 2015. In the early phases of the chart, gold was in a bear market. After that, it developed a double bottom W-type trend reversal on August 25, 1999, with a bottom price of 251.70 and then on February 20, 2001, with a low of 252.60. After the second bottom, it rallied until September 6, 2011, to reach an all-time high price of 1920.80. Since September 2011, it is developing within a down trending channel. Gold should find support in the area of Fibonacci retracement line of 61.8% or some 880 points. After that, gold and silver should rally while other commodities continue their plunge, because of the full tilt deflation and depression in the financial markets. Alternative support levels for Gold are the Fibonacci retracement lines of 76.4% at 640, which represents more severe losses.

At one degree higher, the period from February 2001 to August 2011 becomes the subwave 1 and after that, until the forthcoming bottom, the subwave 2. As you may guess, the subwave 3 upward is anticipated to be extended, followed by the subwaves 4 and 5. The subwave 5 may be extended as well. Therefore, gold will enjoy a long period of bull market after finding support, presumably in the area of 880 or 640.

The gold trend prediction and timing will be included in the MPS TradeAlerts newsletter.

Status of NASDAQ-100 Index until September 22, 2017

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Track Record of TradeAlert (TA) Historical Performance (Status October 8, 2017)

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Brief Description of Money Printing Strategy

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Cristal Ball For Investing and Trading: Introduction

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Dow Jones Trend Prediction Until November 26, 2021

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Technical Analyses

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Valuation of Financial Instruments Based on Gold vs. USD

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US Dollar is a Fiat Currency

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What is Money?

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Loss-Parking Strategy (LPS)

Money Printing Strategy aims at achieving a very high ratio of gaining to losing trades. To do so, it uses a specifically designed alternative to Stop-Loss orders called Loss-Parking Strategy (LPS).

The following example describes the procedure to follow in case of a sudden market reversal. First, we have to go through the trading-checklist again to make sure that all criteria are still valid. We then have three approaches for handling the situation. Have you heard of the frog and the frying pan?

The hot frying pan: The frog jumps on the hot frying pan, notices that it is extremely hot and then jumps out of the pan immediately. This is an example of our behavior when we get nervous and decide to take the losses immediately. However, it may happen that the market resumes the predicted trend just after we stopped losses. This is not a too bad approach to handling the situation. We have suffered losses, however.
The slowly heating pan: The frog jumps in the pan, feels it is warm but still ok. As the pan gets gradually hotter, the frog does not realize and takes no action. Finally, the frog is progressively cooked without noticing the increasingly hotter pan. This is the case when we keep a losing position indefinitely until it swallows the whole trading capital. It is a catastrophic approach and the result of making a close or stop-loss price a moving target. However, this should not happen to us. The MPS does not allow placing of an order to open positions without the associated Stop-Loss order. In the worst case, we would have taken the losses according to the initially calculated Reward-Risk Ratio.
The wise frog: it comes close to the hot pan and feels the heat. It then asks the question: can I cook an omelet with this pan? Well, this would be the case for knowledgeable investors. We know that the position is losing money at each passing moment. At the same time, we do not accept to take losses either. We also know that the counter-trending wave is going to be short-lived because the main predicted trend could resume soon. In this case, we say, why not to cook an omelet with the hot pan? How do we do it? We do it by checking the signals of the VIX, the DJ-30 as well as their associated TSV and MS indicators. In principle, they should all confirm that the current market trend goes in the opposite direction of our open position. Then we decide to open a “Force Open” position with the same amount of shares, in line with the current market trend, and in the opposite direction of the already open position. This way, our newly opened position compensates for the losses of the original open position as long as the market trends against it.

Within the MPS, we call the process of “cooking omelet” the “Loss-Parking Strategy.”

The Loss-Parking strategy requires proper trading context to be efficient. It works best within the following context:

We determine first the main trend of the wave at one degree higher.
We open a Long or Short position in line with the main trend. This means that if the Trend-Prediction Strategy predicts a bullish trend, we open a Long position.
Knowing that the main trend is bullish also implies that development of counter-trending waves would be short-lived and temporary. Therefore, we would expect the wave to reverse back toward the main trend, after a short while. For this reason, it is inefficient to take losses should the market temporarily go down for a while. It would be better to use the Loss-Parking Strategy. How does it work? Instead of placing a Stop-Loss order, we place a so-called “Force Open” limit order to open a Short position, with the same price as the one of the Stop-Loss order. What is a “Force Open” order? The order management tool of “IG” brokerage firm allows traders to open positions in two opposing directions at the same time. Let us assume that we have a Long open position of one contract of DJ-30. Normally, when we open a Short position, it would close the existing Long open position. By ticking the “Force Open” button, you convey to the IG trading platform that you want to open a new position in the opposite direction of the current IG considers all limit orders as “Force Open” By default. However, the market orders require explicit ticking of the “Force Open” button. You may recall that the MPS uses exclusively limit orders.
Let us take an example. We want to open a Long position at 100, close at 120, and Stop-Loss at 98. How does it work?
We place a limit order to open a Long position at 100 with a close of 120.
We place a limit order to “Force Open” a Short position at 98.
Once the Long position is open at 100, and the price goes a bit up but suddenly, the trend reverses downward and crosses the 98 price. Our “Force Open” order would then be executed. Now we have two different open positions, one Long at 100 and another Short, at 98.
All “Force Open” orders must include an embedded or a separate accompanying Stop-Loss order. We place the “Force Open” associated Stop-Loss order at 100. We never place a “Force Open” position without an accompanying Stop-Loss order. Otherwise, we would have to use the simple Stop-Loss Strategy.
From this time on, whenever the wave goes upward or downward, our losses always remain constant at 2 points (or 2 percent). When the wave goes downward, the Short position gains but the Long position lose, and vice versa. The two positions compensate the gain and loss of each other.
How does the Loss-Parking Strategy work in practice? Well, taking into account this example, we now have one Long position at 100 and one Short, at 98. The “Force Open” accompanying Stop-Loss order is at 100. We assume that the wave price crosses down through the 98 level. We know that the wave is in counter-trending mode. From now on, we focus only on the “Force Open” position. As long as the wave goes downward, we constantly lower the associated trailing Stop price to secure the gains of the Short position. Whenever the Trend-Prediction Strategy signals a bullish trend reversal, we close the “Force Open” position immediately with a gain. Now the Long position has been further losing while the wave was trending downward. The market having resumed the originally predicted bullish trend, the Long position starts progressively trimming losses until it becomes even and then gaining. As a result, the Long position increases our capital by the amount of gains of the “Force Open” position when the Long position is even.

By using the LPS, we avoided (1) to take a loss of 2 percent and (2) to prevent our Long position from unnecessary closure. In particular, we avoided a losing trade and instead, we would now have two gaining trades. The only drawback is that we may have to pay interest if we borrowed money on margin for the Loss-Parking position.

The Loss-Parking Strategy is efficient in the following context:

Evolution of Dow Jones Index until December 2016

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Central Banker’s Recent Decisions

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Market Crash – Preservation of Wealth Until October 21, 2021

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Analyzes of Dow Jones Index from January 14, 2000 until June 2014

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Historical Analyzes of Markets from 1696 to January 14, 2000

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Why to Trade?

Become your own financial adviser and trade based on your own independent trend predictions and trading strategy – not on untrustworthy, unreliable, and costly external advice. In Money Printing Strategy, we highly value and respect our customers’ trust that we shall not betray in any way, and take pride in our honesty and integrity. We … Continue reading Why to Trade?

Which Capital to Invest for a Trade?

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What Timescale for a Trade?

FREE REGISTRATION Register now to get the daily TradeAlert newsletter and other high-value posts in a timely manner in your inbox for free. You can cancel your risk-free registration at anytime. Become your own financial adviser and trade based on your own independent trend predictions and trading strategy – not on untrustworthy, unreliable, and costly … Continue reading What Timescale for a Trade?

When to Trade?

Become your own financial adviser and trade based on your own independent trend predictions and trading strategy – not on untrustworthy, unreliable, and costly external advice. In Money Printing Strategy, we highly value and respect our customers’ trust that we shall not betray in any way, and take pride in our honesty and integrity. We … Continue reading When to Trade?

Ultimate Financial Independence

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Role and Responsibility of World’s Central Banks and Governments

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US Federal, State, and Local Government Debts

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Federal Reserve and its Balance Sheet

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Media News Versus Predictions of Money Printing Strategy

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Psychology of Trading

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Market Trend Prediction Versus Market Timing

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Is Our Destiny Predetermined?

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