Blog Category Archives: Free Stuff

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TA # 298; Mon. December 4, 2017

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TA # 271; Tue. October 24, 2017

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TA # 267; Wed. October 18, 2017

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TA # 266; Tue. October 17, 2017

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TA # 265; Mon. October 16, 2017

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TA # 264; Fri October 13, 2017

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TA # 263; Thu October 12, 2017

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TA # 262; Wed October 11, 2017

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TA # 261; Tue October 10, 2017

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New and Updated Posts (October 9, 2017)

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Performance of TradeAlert Newsletter from July 1, 2017 (Status October 8, 2017)

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Status of Australian AORD-X Index until October 4, 2017

FREE REGISTRATION Register now to get the daily TradeAlert newsletter and other high-value posts in a timely manner in your inbox for free. You can cancel your risk-free registration at anytime. Status of Australian AORD-X Index The All Ordinaries Index is the benchmark for Australian Stock Exchange (ASX), which comprises over 300 stocks traded on … Continue reading Status of Australian AORD-X Index until October 4, 2017

Status of Chinese SSE Index until October 4, 2017

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Status of Japanese NIKKEI-225 Index until October 4, 2017

FREE REGISTRATION Register now to get the daily TradeAlert newsletter and other high-value posts in a timely manner in your inbox for free. You can cancel your risk-free registration at anytime. Status of Japanese NIKKEI-225 Index NIKKEI-225 represents the Japanese stock market Index. It comprises 225 highest capitalization companies trading on the floor of Tokyo … Continue reading Status of Japanese NIKKEI-225 Index until October 4, 2017

Status of UK FTSE-100 Index until October 4, 2017

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Status of German DAX Index until October 4, 2017

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TA # 260; Mon October 9, 2017

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Status of USD/YEN until October 8, 2017

The other major Forex index is the US Dollar against Japanese Yen (USD/JPY). Comments related to EUR/USD also apply to USD/JPY. Figure 17.26 shows a monthly chart of USD/JPY from 1975 to December 28, 2015.

17-26Figure 17.26 Charts courtesy of netdania.com

We can see that the USD has been substantially depreciating against JPY from 1975 to 1995. This trend was mainly the consequence of removing the USD gold backing by the Fed. After that, USD/JPY was practically trending sideway until Q4, 2012. Mr. Abe became the prime minister of Japan in 2012. He is trying with full power to depreciate JPY against the dollar (to make the dollar go higher) with unprecedented QE plans. The up trending wave from October 2012 to December 28, 2015, is partly the result of the BoJ QE program, and partly because of the rate hike anticipation by the Fed.

Inflation or Deflation: What is good for the economy and citizens?

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Status of EUR/USD until October 8, 2017

Forex is the exchange for trading currencies. The EUR/USD index shows the evolution of the Euro against the US Dollar. When the EUR/USD goes up, the Euro appreciates against the USD, and when it goes down, the USD appreciates against the Euro. When you open a Long position on EUR/USD, you bet that the Euro will appreciate. With a Short position, you bet that the Euro depreciates and the USD appreciates.

Figure 17.25 shows a monthly chart of EUR/USD from 1991 to December 28, 2015. On its left side, the Euro relentlessly depreciates against the USD until Q3 2000. Then after a double bottom of W-type in 2000 and 2001, the Euro started a rally until 2008 to reach an exchange rate of $1.60 for 1 Euro. Since then, the EUR/USD wave evolves within a down trending channel. In December 2015, the wave was sitting on a support line. Should the Fed announce another rate hike in 2016 or after, the wave could break through the support line. This event is however quite unlikely because such decision would have adverse effects on the trend of the US financial markets and the ability of the US governments to service their debt.

The EUR/USD trend prediction and timing will be included in the MPS TradeAlerts newsletter.

For further details regarding the state of the US Economy and Finances, please refer to the section “The Fed”.

Status of Crude Oil until October 4, 2017

The Light Sweet Crude Oil Index called XOILX in TC2000 tracks the price of oil. Figure 17.22 shows a monthly chart of XOILX for the period from 2003 to December 28, 2015.

In the early phase of the chart, the price of oil was in the range of $25. After that, the XOILX rallied to some $80 in Q3 2006. After bottoming in Q1 2007, oil rallied to an all-time high of 146.65 on July 11, 2008. The correction since then has taken the form of a zigzag A, B, and C. Like CRY0, subwave A ended in Q1 2009 and subwave B, either in Q2 2011 or Q2 2014. The subwave C then begun and is going to develop a five-wave motive pattern, downward. Detailed Money printing Strategy analyzes of CRY0 also apply here.

On top of the deflationary pressure that pushes the price of oil down, the technology innovations are always helping to discover new types of energy at economical and affordable production prices. The environmental and climate change is another factor that will force the price of oil to fall. Ultimately, the technological innovations will enable the replacement of fossil energy by the renewable and clean energy of sun, wind, and sea.

Utilization of oil will progressively decrease, and therefore, its price should go further down, maybe to the area of $12. Around the year 2050, oil may mainly be used by the developing countries who cannot afford the capital investments for the production of renewable energies. The developed countries will progressively consider oil as an obsolete source of energy, to end with the same fate as for coal.

Status of Commodity Index until October 4, 2017

The commodities are tracked through the Commodity Research Index, called CRY0 in TC2000. Here we analyze the status of CRY0, Gold, and Crude Oil. Figure 17.20 shows a monthly chart of CRY0 from mid-1991 to December 28, 2015.

CRY0 tracks quite well the market phases of inflation and deflation. When it trends upward, it signals phases of inflation and when downward, deflation. Likewise, when it goes up, it signals a prevailing economic demand side and when down, a weak demand and a strong supply side. Deflation is the consequence of vanishing wealth due to recession or depression in the economy and finances.

At the beginning of the chart, CRY0 was rather in a correction mode until a double bottom W-type trend reversal in Q4 2001. Then it rallied until Q2 2008. The commodities crashed and lost more than 50% of its value from Q3 2008 to Q1 2009, in a short period of some nine months. This loss was caused by the crash of financial markets during subwave C of DJ-30. Owing to the US QE plans, the commodity prices were re-inflated from Q1 2009 to Q2 2011 after injection of a massive amount of money in the financial markets by the Fed. Since Q2 2011, the CRY0 develops within a steep down trending channel. The wave has meanwhile broken the horizontal support lines at 201, but also the bottom price of the W-type trend reversal at 184.

The CRY0 pattern conveys a scary signal. In principle, when the stock markets are close to all-time highs, the CRY0 is also expected to be close to all-time high. However, this is not the case in Q4 2015.

From the Money Printing Strategy wave analysis viewpoint, CRY0 seems to develop a zigzag pattern. The subwave A started from the all-time high of 2008 to end in Q1 of 2009. Then the subwave B brought the CRY0 upward until Q2 2011. The subwave C then started. It is going to subdivide into five motive sub-subwaves. Sub-subwave 1 ended in Q2 2012 and sub-subwave 2, in Q2 2014. The sub-subwave 3 began in Q2 2014. Most likely, it is going to be extended. Therefore, the sub-sub-subwave 1 of sub-subwave 3 ended in Q2 2015, and the sub-sub-subwave 2 in Q3 2015. Therefore, the final leg down is the sub-sub-sub-subwave 1 of sub-sub-wave 1 of sub-sub-wave 3. Consequently, the CRY0 has still a long period of correction ahead before the sub-subwave 5 of the subwave C is completed.

Why CRY0 conveys a scary signal? The reason is that when the DJ-30 starts its plunge until 2019, a colossal amount of wealth, invested in financial markets, vanishes and the bubbles pop up. The loss of wealth compresses the demand side of the economic balance. This results in an increase in the buying power of money. Consequently, the price of goods and services falls. This will be the effect of the screaming deflationary signal of CRY0.

A plunge in the price of commodities will hurt mostly the developing countries whose economies are heavily dependent on the export of their raw natural resources.

For further details concerning the deflation, please refer to Chapter 13.

The CRY0 trend prediction and timing will be included in the MPS TradeAlerts newsletter.

For further details regarding the state of the US Economy and Finances, please refer to the section “The Fed”.

Status of S&P-500 Index until October 4, 2017

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TA # 259; Fri October 6, 2017

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TA # 258; Thu October 5, 2017

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TA # 257; Wed October 4, 2017

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TA # 256; Tue October 3, 2017

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TA # 255; Mon October 2, 2017

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TA # 254; Fri September 29, 2017

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TA # 253; Thu September 28, 2017

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TA # 252; Wed September 27, 2017

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TA # 251; Tue September 26, 2017

Book: Example of Customers’ review on amazon.com: Best knowledgable book ever, June 27, 2016, By Amazon Customer -Verified Purchase(What’s this?) Best knowledgable book ever: A Very comprehensive and analytic view and tools For today and future trading with understanding of worlds political and enviormental effect On the economy. For beginers and specialists. great book. thank … Continue reading TA # 251; Tue September 26, 2017

Status of French CAC-40 Index

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TA # 250; Mon September 25, 2017

Book: Example of Customers’ review on amazon.com: Best knowledgable book ever, June 27, 2016, By Amazon Customer -Verified Purchase(What’s this?) Best knowledgable book ever: A Very comprehensive and analytic view and tools For today and future trading with understanding of worlds political and enviormental effect On the economy. For beginers and specialists. great book. thank … Continue reading TA # 250; Mon September 25, 2017

Status of Canadian TSX index until September 22, 2017

FREE REGISTRATION Register now to get the daily TradeAlert newsletter and other high-value posts in a timely manner in your inbox for free. You can cancel your risk-free registration at anytime. Status of Canadian TSX index TSX is the benchmark for Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX). Within TC2000, it is called TSX–X. Figure 17.15A shows a … Continue reading Status of Canadian TSX index until September 22, 2017

Status of the US Dollar Index until September 23, 2017

The US Dollar Index measure the value of the dollar against a basket of other currencies. In TC2000, the index is called DXY0. When the DXY0 goes up, the Dollar goes up and other currencies tend to go down, and vice versa.

Figure 17.24 shows a monthly chart of DXY0 from mid-1991 to December 28, 2015. We can see that after a decline from 1994 to mid-1995, DXY0 rallied until Q3, 2001. However and after a M-type double tops trend reversal in Q1 2002, it started to trend down until Q1 2008. After that, it trended sideway until Q3 2014. The final rally is the consequence of anticipation of a rate hike by the Fed.

DXY0 trends generally in the opposite direction of commodities. When DXY0 goes up, the commodities tend to go down and vice versa. The fluctuation of the Dollar index has a significant impact on the US economy and labor market. A high value of the index means that the price of imported goods and services falls. This situation impacts the US trade balance drastically because not only the price of imported products and services declines but at the same time the price of products and services for export becomes more expensive for other countries. Consequently, a higher value of the dollar index may lead to delocalization of companies and industries. In the long run, this may adversely affect the unemployment rate. The lower value of DXY0 provokes the opposite effects.

Since many years now, a hot currency war is in progress among various countries. This war is done with the ammunitions of low-interest rates, low banking capital requirements, and QE programs. This war feeds a vicious circle and forces other countries to devalue their currency in turn and indefinitely, until the trust in fiat currencies vanishes and the bank notes become worth the intrinsic value of the printed-paper.

Therefore, it is clear that an appreciation of dollar leads to delocalization of companies. The US economy being sluggish, a high value of DXY0 adversely affects the growth rate of the US GDP. Consequently, a hike in interest rate should be undesirable for the US economy that may provoke the crash of the stock and bond markets. Does the Fed know the effect and consequences of a rate hike? Yes for sure, but it may get forced to, because of the prevailing forces of the free market. Otherwise, by refusing to hike the rates, they convey a signal that the economy is sluggish, which in turn may adversely affect the financial markets.

By the way, the ECB and BoJ are fighting with full power to depreciate their currencies against the US dollar and other currencies, precisely to propel their exporting sector. Can the US economy withstand the pressure of an overvalued currency in the long run? To be seen.

The DXY0 trend prediction and timing will be included in the MPS TradeAlerts newsletter.

For further details regarding the state of the US Economy and Finances, please refer to the section “The Fed”.

Status of the US Real Estate Index until September 23, 2017

To analyze the state of the US real estate, we use the TC2000 MG440 Real estate index. Figure 17.23 shows a monthly chart of the US housing index from 1988 to December 28, 2015. After a correction in 1990, the real estate started a prolonged rally until Q1 2007 to make an all-time high on February 8, 2007, with a price of 821.87. With the financial market deflation and depression of 2008, the Real Estate bottomed with a price of 148.28 on March 6, 2009. This represents a loss of 82% from the top. As a reminder, DJ-30 also bottomed on March 6, 2009. Since then, the real estate was re-inflated through the Fed successive QE programs. On December 28, 2015, the wave is sitting on the resistance trend line of the down trending channel. This level is also the Fibonacci retracement level with a loss of 38.2% from the all-time high. The correction from 2007 has taken the zigzag pattern. The subwave A ended in Q1, 2009 and the subwave B, most likely on 28 January 2015. Like CRY0 and oil, the subwave C will take the pattern of a five-wave motive, trending downward. For 2015, the chart shows a small degree down trending wave 1 and 2. The down trending resistance line being confirmed by two different means, the wave may rather have difficulty to break through it, upward.

The real estate prices should find bottom when the wave touches the down trending support line. Most likely, it would find support in the price area of Q4, 1990.

The Real Estate index trend prediction and timing will be included in the MPS TradeAlerts newsletter.

For further details regarding the state of the US Economy and Finances, please refer to the section “The Fed”.

Status of Gold

Gold and silver are two of the commodities that have long been used as real money throughout the history. The history of gold is explained in detail in Chapter 13. Here we would like to check the chart of gold called XGLD in TC2000.

Figure 17.21 shows a monthly chart of gold from 1993 to December 28, 2015. In the early phases of the chart, gold was in a bear market. After that, it developed a double bottom W-type trend reversal on August 25, 1999, with a bottom price of 251.70 and then on February 20, 2001, with a low of 252.60. After the second bottom, it rallied until September 6, 2011, to reach an all-time high price of 1920.80. Since September 2011, it is developing within a down trending channel. Gold should find support in the area of Fibonacci retracement line of 61.8% or some 880 points. After that, gold and silver should rally while other commodities continue their plunge, because of the full tilt deflation and depression in the financial markets. Alternative support levels for Gold are the Fibonacci retracement lines of 76.4% at 640, which represents more severe losses.

At one degree higher, the period from February 2001 to August 2011 becomes the subwave 1 and after that, until the forthcoming bottom, the subwave 2. As you may guess, the subwave 3 upward is anticipated to be extended, followed by the subwaves 4 and 5. The subwave 5 may be extended as well. Therefore, gold will enjoy a long period of bull market after finding support, presumably in the area of 880 or 640.

The gold trend prediction and timing will be included in the MPS TradeAlerts newsletter.

Status of NASDAQ-100 Index until September 22, 2017

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TA # 249; Fri September 22, 2017

Book: Example of Customers’ review on amazon.com: Best knowledgable book ever, June 27, 2016, By Amazon Customer -Verified Purchase(What’s this?) Best knowledgable book ever: A Very comprehensive and analytic view and tools For today and future trading with understanding of worlds political and enviormental effect On the economy. For beginers and specialists. great book. thank … Continue reading TA # 249; Fri September 22, 2017

TA # 248; Thu September 21, 2017

Book: Example of Customers’ review on amazon.com: Best knowledgable book ever, June 27, 2016, By Amazon Customer -Verified Purchase(What’s this?) Best knowledgable book ever: A Very comprehensive and analytic view and tools For today and future trading with understanding of worlds political and enviormental effect On the economy. For beginers and specialists. great book. thank … Continue reading TA # 248; Thu September 21, 2017

TA # 247; Wed September 20, 2017

Book: Example of Customers’ review on amazon.com: Best knowledgable book ever, June 27, 2016, By Amazon Customer -Verified Purchase(What’s this?) Best knowledgable book ever: A Very comprehensive and analytic view and tools For today and future trading with understanding of worlds political and enviormental effect On the economy. For beginers and specialists. great book. thank … Continue reading TA # 247; Wed September 20, 2017

TA # 246; Tue September 19, 2017

Book: Example of Customers’ review on amazon.com: Best knowledgable book ever, June 27, 2016, By Amazon Customer -Verified Purchase(What’s this?) Best knowledgable book ever: A Very comprehensive and analytic view and tools For today and future trading with understanding of worlds political and enviormental effect On the economy. For beginers and specialists. great book. thank … Continue reading TA # 246; Tue September 19, 2017

TA # 244; Fri September 15, 2017

Book: Example of Customers’ review on amazon.com: Best knowledgable book ever, June 27, 2016, By Amazon Customer -Verified Purchase(What’s this?) Best knowledgable book ever: A Very comprehensive and analytic view and tools For today and future trading with understanding of worlds political and enviormental effect On the economy. For beginers and specialists. great book. thank … Continue reading TA # 244; Fri September 15, 2017

TA # 243; Thu September 14, 2017

Book: Example of Customers’ review on amazon.com: Best knowledgable book ever, June 27, 2016, By Amazon Customer -Verified Purchase(What’s this?) Best knowledgable book ever: A Very comprehensive and analytic view and tools For today and future trading with understanding of worlds political and enviormental effect On the economy. For beginers and specialists. great book. thank … Continue reading TA # 243; Thu September 14, 2017

TA # 242; Wed September 13, 2017

Book: Example of Customers’ review on amazon.com: Best knowledgable book ever, June 27, 2016, By Amazon Customer -Verified Purchase(What’s this?) Best knowledgable book ever: A Very comprehensive and analytic view and tools For today and future trading with understanding of worlds political and enviormental effect On the economy. For beginers and specialists. great book. thank … Continue reading TA # 242; Wed September 13, 2017

TA # 241; Tue September 12, 2017

Book: Example of Customers’ review on amazon.com: Best knowledgable book ever, June 27, 2016, By Amazon Customer -Verified Purchase(What’s this?) Best knowledgable book ever: A Very comprehensive and analytic view and tools For today and future trading with understanding of worlds political and enviormental effect On the economy. For beginers and specialists. great book. thank … Continue reading TA # 241; Tue September 12, 2017

TA # 240; Mon September 11, 2017

Book: Example of Customers’ review on amazon.com: Best knowledgable book ever, June 27, 2016, By Amazon Customer -Verified Purchase(What’s this?) Best knowledgable book ever: A Very comprehensive and analytic view and tools For today and future trading with understanding of worlds political and enviormental effect On the economy. For beginers and specialists. great book. thank … Continue reading TA # 240; Mon September 11, 2017

TA # 239; Fri September 8, 2017

Book: Example of Customers’ review on amazon.com: Best knowledgable book ever, June 27, 2016, By Amazon Customer -Verified Purchase(What’s this?) Best knowledgable book ever: A Very comprehensive and analytic view and tools For today and future trading with understanding of worlds political and enviormental effect On the economy. For beginers and specialists. great book. thank … Continue reading TA # 239; Fri September 8, 2017