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TA # 267; Wed. October 18, 2017

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TA # 266; Tue. October 17, 2017

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TA # 265; Mon. October 16, 2017

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TA # 264; Fri October 13, 2017

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TA # 263; Thu October 12, 2017

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TA # 262; Wed October 11, 2017

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TA # 261; Tue October 10, 2017

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New and Updated Posts (October 9, 2017)

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Performance of TradeAlert Newsletter from July 1, 2017 (Status October 8, 2017)

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Status of Australian AORD-X Index until October 4, 2017

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Status of Chinese SSE Index until October 4, 2017

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Status of Japanese NIKKEI-225 Index until October 4, 2017

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Status of UK FTSE-100 Index until October 4, 2017

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Status of German DAX Index until October 4, 2017

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TA # 260; Mon October 9, 2017

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Status of USD/YEN until October 8, 2017

The other major Forex index is the US Dollar against Japanese Yen (USD/JPY). Comments related to EUR/USD also apply to USD/JPY. Figure 17.26 shows a monthly chart of USD/JPY from 1975 to December 28, 2015.

17-26Figure 17.26 Charts courtesy of netdania.com

We can see that the USD has been substantially depreciating against JPY from 1975 to 1995. This trend was mainly the consequence of removing the USD gold backing by the Fed. After that, USD/JPY was practically trending sideway until Q4, 2012. Mr. Abe became the prime minister of Japan in 2012. He is trying with full power to depreciate JPY against the dollar (to make the dollar go higher) with unprecedented QE plans. The up trending wave from October 2012 to December 28, 2015, is partly the result of the BoJ QE program, and partly because of the rate hike anticipation by the Fed.

Status of EUR/USD until October 8, 2017

Forex is the exchange for trading currencies. The EUR/USD index shows the evolution of the Euro against the US Dollar. When the EUR/USD goes up, the Euro appreciates against the USD, and when it goes down, the USD appreciates against the Euro. When you open a Long position on EUR/USD, you bet that the Euro will appreciate. With a Short position, you bet that the Euro depreciates and the USD appreciates.

Figure 17.25 shows a monthly chart of EUR/USD from 1991 to December 28, 2015. On its left side, the Euro relentlessly depreciates against the USD until Q3 2000. Then after a double bottom of W-type in 2000 and 2001, the Euro started a rally until 2008 to reach an exchange rate of $1.60 for 1 Euro. Since then, the EUR/USD wave evolves within a down trending channel. In December 2015, the wave was sitting on a support line. Should the Fed announce another rate hike in 2016 or after, the wave could break through the support line. This event is however quite unlikely because such decision would have adverse effects on the trend of the US financial markets and the ability of the US governments to service their debt.

The EUR/USD trend prediction and timing will be included in the MPS TradeAlerts newsletter.

For further details regarding the state of the US Economy and Finances, please refer to the section “The Fed”.

Status of Crude Oil until October 4, 2017

The Light Sweet Crude Oil Index called XOILX in TC2000 tracks the price of oil. Figure 17.22 shows a monthly chart of XOILX for the period from 2003 to December 28, 2015.

In the early phase of the chart, the price of oil was in the range of $25. After that, the XOILX rallied to some $80 in Q3 2006. After bottoming in Q1 2007, oil rallied to an all-time high of 146.65 on July 11, 2008. The correction since then has taken the form of a zigzag A, B, and C. Like CRY0, subwave A ended in Q1 2009 and subwave B, either in Q2 2011 or Q2 2014. The subwave C then begun and is going to develop a five-wave motive pattern, downward. Detailed Money printing Strategy analyzes of CRY0 also apply here.

On top of the deflationary pressure that pushes the price of oil down, the technology innovations are always helping to discover new types of energy at economical and affordable production prices. The environmental and climate change is another factor that will force the price of oil to fall. Ultimately, the technological innovations will enable the replacement of fossil energy by the renewable and clean energy of sun, wind, and sea.

Utilization of oil will progressively decrease, and therefore, its price should go further down, maybe to the area of $12. Around the year 2050, oil may mainly be used by the developing countries who cannot afford the capital investments for the production of renewable energies. The developed countries will progressively consider oil as an obsolete source of energy, to end with the same fate as for coal.

Status of Commodity Index until October 4, 2017

The commodities are tracked through the Commodity Research Index, called CRY0 in TC2000. Here we analyze the status of CRY0, Gold, and Crude Oil. Figure 17.20 shows a monthly chart of CRY0 from mid-1991 to December 28, 2015.

CRY0 tracks quite well the market phases of inflation and deflation. When it trends upward, it signals phases of inflation and when downward, deflation. Likewise, when it goes up, it signals a prevailing economic demand side and when down, a weak demand and a strong supply side. Deflation is the consequence of vanishing wealth due to recession or depression in the economy and finances.

At the beginning of the chart, CRY0 was rather in a correction mode until a double bottom W-type trend reversal in Q4 2001. Then it rallied until Q2 2008. The commodities crashed and lost more than 50% of its value from Q3 2008 to Q1 2009, in a short period of some nine months. This loss was caused by the crash of financial markets during subwave C of DJ-30. Owing to the US QE plans, the commodity prices were re-inflated from Q1 2009 to Q2 2011 after injection of a massive amount of money in the financial markets by the Fed. Since Q2 2011, the CRY0 develops within a steep down trending channel. The wave has meanwhile broken the horizontal support lines at 201, but also the bottom price of the W-type trend reversal at 184.

The CRY0 pattern conveys a scary signal. In principle, when the stock markets are close to all-time highs, the CRY0 is also expected to be close to all-time high. However, this is not the case in Q4 2015.

From the Money Printing Strategy wave analysis viewpoint, CRY0 seems to develop a zigzag pattern. The subwave A started from the all-time high of 2008 to end in Q1 of 2009. Then the subwave B brought the CRY0 upward until Q2 2011. The subwave C then started. It is going to subdivide into five motive sub-subwaves. Sub-subwave 1 ended in Q2 2012 and sub-subwave 2, in Q2 2014. The sub-subwave 3 began in Q2 2014. Most likely, it is going to be extended. Therefore, the sub-sub-subwave 1 of sub-subwave 3 ended in Q2 2015, and the sub-sub-subwave 2 in Q3 2015. Therefore, the final leg down is the sub-sub-sub-subwave 1 of sub-sub-wave 1 of sub-sub-wave 3. Consequently, the CRY0 has still a long period of correction ahead before the sub-subwave 5 of the subwave C is completed.

Why CRY0 conveys a scary signal? The reason is that when the DJ-30 starts its plunge until 2019, a colossal amount of wealth, invested in financial markets, vanishes and the bubbles pop up. The loss of wealth compresses the demand side of the economic balance. This results in an increase in the buying power of money. Consequently, the price of goods and services falls. This will be the effect of the screaming deflationary signal of CRY0.

A plunge in the price of commodities will hurt mostly the developing countries whose economies are heavily dependent on the export of their raw natural resources.

For further details concerning the deflation, please refer to Chapter 13.

The CRY0 trend prediction and timing will be included in the MPS TradeAlerts newsletter.

For further details regarding the state of the US Economy and Finances, please refer to the section “The Fed”.

Status of S&P-500 Index until October 4, 2017

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