Excerpt from: “Crystal Ball for Investing and Trading“
The market charts are defined by three components: (1) the Chart Pattern, (2) Prices, and (3) Dates and Duration.
At the end of chapter 3 of “Cristal Ball For Investing and Trading” book in 2014, while Dow Jones was at around 17,000, it was written that “The Cycle degree wave 5 (or wave D) amplitude should achieve one out of four alternatives of 161.8 percent, 200 percent, 261.8 percent, or 461.8 percent of wave B.
Based on this assumption, the wave 5 (or wave D) top should then reach either 17,747 (6,470 + [6,970 * 1.618]), 20,410 (6,470 + [6,970 * 2]), 24,717 (6,470 + [6,970 * 2.618]), or 39,157 (6,470 + [6,970 * 4.618])”.
Figure 12.1 presents the evolution of Dow Jones from 1915 to March 10, 2020. It shows clearly the crisis of 1929 during which Dow Jones lost 89.5% of its valuation in 34 months. It was a Super Cycle degree wave 4. Thus, the Super Cycle degree wave 5 began in 1932 and reached its historical peak on February 12, 2020 at 29,568 points.
With the completion of Super Cycle degree wave 5, also the Grand Super Cycle degree wave 3 since the French revolution in 1789, and the Cycle degree wave 5 since 2009, were completed as well.
The Grand Super Cycle degree wave 4 (or its subwave E) has started on February 13, 2020. This wave is predicted to plunge Dow Jones from its historical peak of 29,568 points on February 12, 2020 down to around 5,837 in 34 (or 21) lunar months, on November 9, 2022 (or October 21, 2021).
Figure 12.1 (Charts courtesy of TC2000.com)
An alternative way of counting waves considers January 14, 2000 as the historical peak of the Grand Super Cycle degree wave 3. Thus, the Grand Super Cycle degree wave 4, corrective, would have started on January 15, 2000 and would be in progress in 2020. See Figure 12.2 which covers the period from 1993 to March 10, 2020.
This wave would have then taken the pattern of an expanding triangle with 5 subwaves, three bearish A, C and E, and two bullish, B and D. Subwave A would then be finished in 2002, subwave B in 2007, subwave C in 2009, and subwave D on February 12, 2020. Consequently, its subwave E, the last leg of the expanding triangle, would have started on February 13, 2020.
Consequently, the Grand Super Cycle degree wave 4 or its subwave E, both corrective, have started on February 13, 2020.
Figure 12.2 (Charts courtesy of TC2000.com)
Despite the generally accepted opinion regarding the up-trending wave D from March 6, 2009 to February 12, 2020, the author has a preference for this alternative counting of waves.
Hence, the corrective Grand Super Cycle degree wave 4 would have started on January 15, 2000, taken the pattern of an expanding triangle, and its subwave E would be in progress since February 13, 2020. Subwave E should then bring Dow Jones down to around 5,837 on November 9, 2022 (or October 21, 2021).
By looking at its converging channel, we notice that the Dow Jones subwave D broke its up-trending resistance line upward in 2017. This phenomenon is called a “throw-over”. It usually occurs in times of extreme optimism and reckless complacency.
The throw-over represents the part of the chart that has crossed the resistance line upward and is called by many as “Trump rally”. This phenomenon is a direct consequence of the world’s central banks Quantitative Easing (QE) programs since 2008 which created artificial bubbles.
There is no free lunch in economy. What has been taken, must be paid back. The bullish subwave D got fed with cheap money, and the bearish subwave E will implode those bubbles.
Consequently, the Dow Jones wave D reached its historical peak on February 12, 2020 with a price of 29,568 points. Subsequently, its subwave E started on February 13, 2020.
Subwave E is predicted to bring Dow Jones down to the area of the down trading support line of the diverging channel of figure 12.2, probably around 5,837 points on November 9, 2022 (or October 21, 2021).
As predicted in chapter 12, subwave E should last 34 or 21 lunar months.
Figure 12.3 presents a detailed and accurate forecast for the Dow Jones subwave E from its historical peak of 29,568 on February 12, 2020 down to its bottom of around 5,837 points on November 9, 2022.
Concerning the techniques and thinking logic of these forecasts, please refer to chapter 12 of the book.
The current crisis will cause unbearable losses for “buy-and-hold” investors. At the same time, it presents a once in a lifetime opportunity for investors who dare to short the markets at each peak.
Despite unbearable losses, tensions, violence, and wars that subwave E will provoke, its completion is necessary in order to invoke the urgently needed new paradigm shifts in all aspects of human societies.
Its main goal is to remove all inefficiencies built up in our way of live since the French Revolution and ratification of Constitution of the USA in 1789.
Subwave E is going to prepare the solid foundation on top of which the Grand Super Cycle degree wave 5, bullish, can safely develop after November 9, 2022 (or October 21, 2021).
Thereafter, a century long era of growth and prosperity will kick in, especially that its subwaves 3 and 5 are both predicted to be extended.
When it comes to human behavior, pain is a greater motivator than pleasure. People tend to be more inclined to accept paradigm shifts in times of deep pain, recessions, depressions, and wars, than in times of growth and prosperity.
The “Crystal Ball” strategies allow you to surf the predicted subwave E from the top all the way down to the bottom, and to predict the beginning of the Grand Super Cycle degree wave 5 in a timely manner.
Investors will then have the opportunity to buy the blue-chip stocks for a few dollars.
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Best knowledgable book ever, June 27, 2016, By Amazon Customer -Verified Purchase(What's this?) Best knowledgable book ever: A Very comprehensive and analytic view and tools For today and future trading with understanding of worlds political and enviormental effect On the economy. For beginers and specialists. great book. thank you mr.kabir.
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