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Status of Crude Oil (March 2020)

This post is also available in: French

Excerpt from: “Crystal Ball for Investing and Trading” Book.

Status of Crude Oil

The Crude Oil Index, called XOILX in TC2000, tracks the price of oil. Figure 13.22 shows a monthly chart of XOILX for the period 2003 to March 20, 2020.

In the early phase of the chart, the price of oil was in the range of $20. Then XOILX rallied to $146.65 until July 11, 2008. The correction since then has taken the form of a zigzag A, B, and C.

Like CRY0, its subwave A ended in Q1, 2009 and its subwave B, either in Q2 2011 or Q2 2014. Its subwave C then begun and is going to develop a five-wave motive pattern, downward. Detailed wave analyzes for CRY0 also apply here.

Figure 13.22 – Charts courtesy of TC2000.com

In March 2020, crude oil has already hit a price of $20 per barrel.

On top of the deflationary pressure that pushes the price of oil down, the technology innovations are ever helping to discover new types of renewable energy at economic and competitive prices.

The environmental and climate change is another factor that will force the price of oil to fall. Ultimately, the technological innovations should enable nearly full replacement of fossil energy by renewable and clean energy of the sun, wind, and sea. President Trump’s national energy policy should also exert additional pressure on price of oil.

The demand for crude oil will progressively decrease, and therefore, its price should go further down, maybe to the area of $12 in November 2022.

Around the year 2050, oil may mainly be used by the developing countries who could not afford the capital investments for production of renewable energies. The developed countries will progressively consider oil as an obsolete source of energy, to end with the same fate as for coal.

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