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Status of Canadian TSX index (March 2020)

This post is also available in: French

Excerpt from: “Crystal Ball for Investing and Trading” Book.

Status of Canadian TSX index

TSX is the benchmark for Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX). Figure 13.15A shows a monthly chart of TSX—X from 1980 to March 20, 2020. The Prime Minister of Canada is Mr. Justin Trudeau, a charismatic young man with a high level of humanism among political leaders. Culturally speaking, Canada seems closer to Europeans than to its big neighbor in the south, the United States of America.

Figure 13.15A – Charts courtesy of TC2000.com

The following points are worth highlighting:

  1. For TSX, the top of Grand Super Cycle degree wave 3 occurred in 2008, so much later than the one of DJ-30. The wave pattern is meanwhile quite recognizable as a flat or a zigzag. Its subwave A, bearish, completed in 2008, and its subwave B, bullish, lasted from Q1 2009 to February 2020. Whether a flat or a zigzag, its subwave C, bearish, should break downward the up-trending support line and the horizontal one of around 6,000.
  1. The global market crash of 2002 affected the TSX—X quite severely.
  1. The all-time high occurred on February 12, 2020, with a price of approximately 17,000.
  1. Subwave A of 2008 corrected around 50% of the index in a record time of some 8 months.
  1. The subwave C, bearish, started on February 13, 202 and should bring the TSX—X well below the up-trending support line, down to the region of the crash of 1987 around 3,500 points.

The Canadian economy, like many developed countries, is rather sluggish. According to OECD in 2015, the country has a population of 35.5 million, a projected GDP growth of 1.2%, an unemployment rate of 6.9%, and a high level of debt to GDP of 107.7%.

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